The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) stands the chance of recapturing not less than six states in the northern part or the country in the coming 2019 elections.
The party which lost six states in the northern part of the country as well as the centre is currently divided into two main factions and is having problems in many states.
But even with the factional crisis in the PDP, the party is regaining the confidence of majority of the voter population in most of these states due to the lack lustre performance of the APC government in those states and due other reasons like arrogance of political office holders, inability to keep to campaign promises, victimisation and the glamorisattion of poverty.
All Progressives Congress party structures in most of these states have broken into camps with deep resentment among members and suspicion for one another.
The only thing that has kept the crisis from blowing open in most of these states is the relative wide gap between now and 2019 and the bid to show loyalty to President Muhammadu Buhari due to his electoral value in the north.
But even at that, it has become clear at this stage that there are states that are already regretting voting for the APC and are only waiting for the next round of general elections to correct what they consider as mistakes.
These states are, Benue, Plateau, Adamawa, Kano, Bauchi, Kogi and Kwara.
Incidentally all these states were under the PDP prior to the 2015 elections which has established the base for comparisons.
In Benue, the defeat that stares the APC in the face due to lack of performance, inability to pay salaries and penchant to show loyalty to a godfather is so glaring that the governor, Samuel Ortom, is already having sleepless nights , seeing the ghost of his predecessor in office almost everywhere he goes.
This has become a source of worry to many close to the governor as the governor is always looking over his shoulders to check if the former governor is nearby that some are suggesting he visits an expert. The problem is said to be so worrisome that Ortom cannot make any statement without mentioning the former governor.
The former governor, Gabriel Suswam is said to have seized the opportunity to resell his candidacy and his party to the people and takes time to attend to ceremonies where he is commended to the chagrin of the incumbent.
The popularity rating of Suswam has soared that people are beginning to apologise to him for not voting his candidate in 2015.
Another factor that will do Ortom I’m is the strategy he had adopted to work against a particular senatorial zone in the state in the bid to coerce them into doing his will which has so far been resisted as evident in the monumental loss of the APC and it’s candidate in the recent senatorial by-election. Ortom’s desperation to please his godfather whike neglecting the demands of the people of the state is seen as a sign of weakness and will also work against him.
Ordinarily , Governor Simon Lalong of Plateau would not have smelt the seat of the governor if not for how the former governor of the state. Jonah Jang had shunned all advice on not imposing his relative as the PDP flag bearer and had tried to play God.
This as well as the loss of the presidency by the PDP in 2015 before the governoship polls accounted for the little over 40,000 votes difference that decided the polls on favour of the APC and it’s candidate.
The middle name of the governor at a time was ‘ one term’ owing to how he started leading to the conclusion that he does not deserve another chance. But last year, his popularity soared when after receiving the bail out funds, he rushed and cleared the salary of civil servants.
He has also been able to start a number of road projects.
But his main problem has remained his lack of grasp of the party structure and inability to command respect from his subordinates.
Many of those working with him feel they are the ones that put him in office and believe he owes them gratitude and they talk to him anyhow which does not go down well with the average Plateau man or woman.
This has created infighting among the officials and has created room for unbridled corruption because the officials are sure they cannot be touched as the governor looks helplessly.
The party chairman in the state, Letep Dabang owes his loyalty to another stromg godfather, Joshua Dariye, and as been accused of personalising the party thereby creating a deep crack within the Plateau APC.
The governor ‘s open romance with the Hausa community and his statement that they made him governor has also not gone down well with the indigenes of the state.
The PDP in the state led by former Governor Jang, has been meeting to see how it can take advantage of these issues but the personal interests within the PDP in Plateau has made the task a bit more difficult.
In Kaduna, Governor Nasir El- Rufai seems to be adopting the Kayode Fayemi style of governance which emphasises the use of projects to win the heart of the people as opposed to solving their personal problems.
Though he has been commended for starting few road projects in the state, capital, his penchant to look down on other political leaders is seen as an affront and is not going down well with the political class in the state.
Secondly, people fear that giving him a second term would spell doom.for the state as that would serve as a good opportuntiy for him to carry out his unpopular policies of demolishing entire settlements, communities and houses belonging to individuals.
His comments and disposition to attacks in the Southern senatotial zone of the state has made him a personq non grata in the zone that it does not require a soothsayer to know that he cannot get a single vote from the zone. He was recently pelted with stones by youths I. The area due to their belief thatvhe does not mean well for the zone.
His beef with senator Shehu Sani who the youths in the state admire and look up to as a hero will. also cost him votes.
The PDP in the state is working on presenting a candidate who can split the votes with Elrufai either in the central or northern zone to add to the block vote harvest in the southern zone and Elrufai will be history.
In Kwara, it is an open secret that the governor of waiting is the current speaker of the state House of Assembly.
This is was the reason why the leader of the APC in the state, Bukola Saraki asked him to forfeit his seat at the House of Representatives and come and play the local politics in the state so as to get acquainted with the nitty gritty of the politics at the state level before Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed’s second tenure runs out.
The danger for the APC however remains if Saraki and others either Jon the PDP as predicted by Senator Godswill Akpabio or of he joins other APC big wigs to form the expected mega party.
If that happens, then the APC would be singing the nunc dimitiis to the governorship seat as no single individual or group has the kind of structure. Resources and goodwill that the senate president has.
The situation in Adamawa is similar to that of Kwara with the only difference being the personalities involved. In the case of Adamawa, former vice president Atiku Abubakar has succeeded in wooing the leadership of the party and the state to his side that they have on their own started calling on him to contest for the presidency in 2019.
Atiku not only controls the party structure in the state but has enormous resources that he is ready to for his campaign.
Unfortunately for the APC, all other power blocs within the state have been weakened either due to old age or lack of capacity but Atikis’s structure has remained intact.
The bad script for the APC is that Atiku will definitely not remain in the party till 2019 as he is said to be one of those championing the cause of a mega party to enable him run as president in the next elections.
And once he moves the entire APC structure in Adamawa will move with him.
The problem of Bauchi APC is the governor. He is neither hot nor cold politically and is not ready to learn.
He is neither high on projects like El- Rufai not is is high on stomach infrastructure like Ayo Fayose. He is just there.
If former governor of the state, Isa Yuguda and his henchmen succeed in regrouping to sponsor a more popular candidate in 2019, then the governor is sure to go back to his consultancy service in Abuja leaving politics for those who know how to play it.
The quarrel between former governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankawso and his erstwhile deputy, Governor Ganduje has exposed the other side of Ganduje as an unreliable and untrustworthy party man.
Kwankwaso is still respected within the APC in Kano while the governor has succeeded in making a lot of enemies for himself.
The desperation by Ganduje and his associates to rubbish whatever remains of the legacies of Kwankwaso in the state is seen as an act of betrayal and Kano is seen as one of the states that may divide their votes by voting for a party at the presidential election and another during the governorship.
Ganduje, like the Bauchi governor is also seen as colourless and lacking in dexterity.
He does not stand much chance if Kwankwaso rolls out his political tanks against him.