By George Onmonya Daniel
In bid to replace President Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu, some politicians in his party, the All Progressive Congress (APC) and the main opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and others, have ganged up under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to unseat the man from Aso Rock Villa and send him back to Bourdillon Street, Ikoyi, Lagos. That is the stage of policking in Nigeria right now. All eyes are on the road to 2027. Is it possible to unseat a sitting president?
It was done before when Goodluck Jonathan was removed from Aso Rock by a coalition like this one in 2015. However, this is under different circumstances. Goodluck Jonathan lost it when the governors in seven states, six in the north and Rivers State under Rotimi Amaechi, defected to the new coalition party that is in power today. With mass support in his stronghold, in collaboration with support from South West, pocket of supports around Nigeria, Buhari unseated Goodluck Jonathan. When Goodluck Jonathan was naive and because of the United States’ obvious support and some kind of interference at that period, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu doesn’t have that pressure.
With the slogan, “Emi Lokan,” meaning “it is my turn,” enough money to splash around, politicians willing to rig election for their principal using any means, including disrupting election in areas where they know they don’t have support, use of threats and violence, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu looks that 2027 is in his pocket. Is it?
It may all depend on the decision one man. This man is Atiku Abubakar, former Vice President from 1999 to 2007. Since then, Atiku has contested in every presidential election primaries or election till the last election. This time, many analsyts feel Atiku Abubakar has a chance to win and send Tinubu back to Bourdillon Street, Ikoyi-Lagos, only if he did not contest, but put Peter Grigory Obi forward and give him all the support he needed.
In 2023, Peter Obi contested the presidential election under the Labour Party and came third with over 6 million votes, to the surprise of most Nigerian politicians and critics who had taunted that he had no structure. Some people believe he won the election even today as the election was marred by widespread rigging and changing of results. With his followers, majorly young Nigerians who were disenchanted with seasonal Nigerian politicians, Obi supporters, nicknamed OBIDIENTS, went to mobilise and won Lagos and the federal capital, FCT. An Obi as the flag bearer of the ADC is very possible to send Tinubu packing. The obstacle is Atiku Abubakar.
There is a problem with another Atiku Abubakar candidacy. The South wants a southerner to spend 8 years in office as the north did under Buhari. An Atiku Abubaker ticket against Tinubu would see a protest vote against Atiku from the South. The ruling party, APC, is already using that to campaign. Atiku Abubakar will also be against an Obi who would go back to another party to contest against both the coalition and the sitting president. The result will be predictable. Tinubu winning again.
It will completely rattle President Tinubu if ADC chooses Peter Obi as their presidential candidate. A block vote from South East, massive support from North and the Middle Belt, Tinubu will really sit up or go down. The Peter Obi candidacy looks like a winner.
