By Andrew Agbese
I just watched a news clip where former governor of Plateau State, Dara Jonah Jang made a comment on the defection of Governor Caleb Mutfwang to the APC.
In the clip, all that Dara Jang said while addressing PDP members come as highly measured, philosophical and true.
He spoke like a true party man when he said the Governor won his election on the platform of the PDP and that they (of the PDP) would continue to view the mandate as belonging to the PDP until Muftwang wins a fresh election on the platform of another party.
These observations though leaning heavily on partisan perspective cannot be faulted.
While Dara Jang is right, his perspective however offer no legal benefit neither any political advantage to be exploited to alter the reality on ground.
Fact is, Muftwang has moved to another party and his action does not contravene any law as the Nigerian Constitution is silent about what happens to a member of the executive who wins an election on a platform but decides to switch to another.
In fact, going by what happened to then vice president, Atiku Abubakar ahead the 2007 elections, when he defected from the party he was elected alongside his boss, then President Olusegun Obasanjo, it would be safe to conclude that the statutes are helpless in helping a party recover its mandate once the defection has to do with a member of the executive arm of government.
Ahead of Muftwang’s defection, I wrote a piece on this medium on why the Governor cannot be stopped from moving to the APC if he so wished.
Gleaning from the reactions I got, a recurring concern between the camps of those who believe he should defect and those who say he shouldn’t is apart from the issue of morality, what I’ll refer to as the Jang factor.
This has to do with the belief that the success or otherwise of the decision depends on what the respected former governor, Dara Jang had to say on the matter.
The reason is obvious: Dara Jang contributed heavily to the success of Mutfwang in 2023 and as the Gen Zs would put it, is a big name as far as the politics of Plateau is concerned.
The Octogenarian has been around Nigeria’s political landscape for a while having served as military governor of Gongola and Benue states and later won elections and served for eight years as governor of his home state of Plateau and represented Plateau North in the Senate and even contested for Nigeria’s presidency.
Worthy of note here is that long before he became governor of Plateau State in 2007, Dara has earned the trust of his people as one who personifies their collective struggles, appreciates the depth of their common challenges and is ready to make sacrifices to defend their cause.
The manner he won the PDP primary in 2007 walking through the landmine set by then deputy senate president, Ibrahim Mantu, coupled with how he meandered through the road blocks mounted by intimidating money bags, proved he was the man the people wanted.
After winning, he had gone ahead to prove that he meant well for the state with record number of projects he has built during his tenure and how he tried to inculcate in his people a culture of entrepreneurship and self reliance.
His biggest error however came in his desperation to extend the period of grace by insisting that only a member of his ethnic group, Berom, should continue where he stopped after his eight year reign.
This caused disaffection among other citizens who viewed it as an attempt to shatter the smooth zoning arrangement that has been in operation in the state since 1999 and worst of all, introduce ethnic supremacy in the state.
He lost quite considerable support from the other zones on account of that. But even as others withdrew their affection for him, it was intensified within his ethnic stock who see him as their hero.
This has made Jang to become a political force and the only leader in the state’s political history to maintain a consistent bloc vote at any time.
He controls a large population with significant presence in four local government areas of Jos North, Jos South; Riyom and Barkin Ladi.
It therefore follows that whoever Jang supports for an elective office, is already in the lead in four LGs leaving the remaining 13 local governments to be contested for.
Even after leaving Government House, Jang has shown repeatedly that he is the indisputable champion of Plateau North by determining to a large extent who becomes the senator.
He, for instance, won the seat after leaving office, then supported his former loyalist, ID Gyang to succeed him, then Simon Mwadkon.
But the greatest proof of his control of the zone came when, Mwadkon’s election was nullified along others by the courts on account of the PDP not having a structure and a need arose for a fresh election to be conducted.
The moment Jang pointed his fingers at the direction of an otherwise unknown candidate, the deed was done and the man, who must have even forgotten that he was a candidate in the 2023 election was returned as senator.
That’s the political power that Jang wields that no serious contender for political position that needs the support of the Northern zone can afford to ignore.
Back to Muftwang.
Prior to Mutfwang’s defection, the popular belief then was that the governor had not sought Jang’s consent and that even if he does, it was not likely that the former governor would agree given his attachment to the PDP.
It was also said that Jang may not be too excited about the APC because of so many reasons least of which is the fact that the party may have its own projections for 2027 which may not be in tandem with his own plans.
Now that Muftwang has moved to the APC, it means Dara Jang and the PDP would have to go back to the drawing board as a significant factor in their calculation has been taken away.
Much as this could be painful, a more thorough assesment of the current scenario offers a better alternative to Jang if partisanship is not placed above the common good .
By all objective postulations that elevates the good of the state over any other consideration, Dara Jang cannot afford to go separate ways with Mutfwang. Doing so would be counterintuitive and damaging to his vision as a leader who wants to project equity and fairness.
The generally accepted agreement on the Plateau is that each election cycle should rotated among the three senatorial districts.
That has has been the practice since 1999 which enabled Dariye, Jang and Simon Lalong from the three different senatorial zones in the state to do eight years each.
It was by the same token that all the major parties picked their candidates from the Central zone in 2023 which gave Muftwang the opportunity to become governor.
Hence after the expected eight years of the Central zone where Mutfwang hails from, it is expected that it would be the turn of the Northern zone where Jang comes from.
A Jang, who was so eager to enable a seamless continuity for not just his zone but for his ethnic group in 2015 without a break cannot afford to postpone the day that power would return to his people after what would be 16 years by 2031.
Supporting a fresh candidate in 2027 would imply that the 2031 expected year for Plateau North to return to power would be truncated as whoever mounts the saddle other than Muftwang would naturally want to do eight years.
This pushes the year for a return to Northern zone to 2035 instead of 2031 meaning that instead of 16 years, the Northern zone would have to be patient for at least 20 years at stretch.
As it stands, it is only Mutfwang that can promise to do only one term from 2027 and his vow taken to the bank because even if he decides to renege, he is constrained by constitutional provision not to seek a third term.
That is why Jang has no option but to do business with Muftwang and to support his re-election bid
A Mutfwang serving a second term is the only guarantee that power would return to the Northern zone in 2031and knowing how much Jang desires to see that day, it would be wishful thinking assuming he would support any move that threatens that possibility.
I forgot to add that I come in peace.
@AgbeseAndrew
